A taste of things to come

Plant-based proteins are no longer a side dish in diets

Their makers' place as the main course is another matter

植物性蛋白质不再是饮食中的配菜

它们的制造者作为主菜的地位是另一回事

Agood vegan milk needs to look like milk and taste like milk, whether it's a fatty version, preferred by bakers, or a skimmed one, favoured by the health-conscious. And, for coffee-drinkers, it should ideally foam like the stuff from a cow. For years manufacturers have had trouble hacking this delicate imitation game. Rapidly rising revenues suggest that they are getting much better at it. In America alone, $2.6bn of plant-based milk was sold in 2021, up from $2bn in 2018.

一款好的素食牛奶需要看起来像牛奶，吃起来也像牛奶，无论是面包师喜欢的脂肪型，还是健康意识强的人喜欢的脱脂型。而且，对于喝咖啡的人来说，它的泡沫最好像奶牛的东西。多年来，制造商们在破解这种微妙的模仿游戏方面遇到了困难。迅速增长的收入表明，他们在这方面做得越来越好。仅在美国，2021年就销售了26亿美元的植物奶，高于2018年的20亿美元。

Pseudo-milks are only one category in the growing assortment of passable Plant-based alternatives to animal products. There are now convincing versions not just of meat but of cheese, eggs and even prawns. Burger King and McDonald's sell vegan patties; Chipotle has made a plant-based chorizo. Last year the world's largest producer of canned tuna, Thai Union, launched a plant-based line. Growing sales show the growing taste for this type of foodstuff . BCG, a consultancy, reckons that global revenues from alternative proteins could reach $290bn by 2035—and that is a cautious estimate.

伪奶只是越来越多的基于植物的动物产品替代品中的一个类别。现在不仅是肉，还有奶酪、鸡蛋甚至大虾都有令人信服的版本。汉堡王和麦当劳出售素食肉饼；Chipotle制作了一种植物性辣酱。去年，世界上最大的金枪鱼罐头生产商泰国联合公司推出了一个植物性产品系列。不断增长的销售量表明人们对这类食品的品味越来越高。咨询公司BCG估计，到2035年，替代蛋白质的全球收入可能达到2900亿美元--这是一个谨慎的估计。

Eager investors have poured into the business like oatmilk into a latte. Alternative-protein companies lapped up $5bn in investments in 2021, 60% more than in 2020. Oatly, a Swedish firm that makes plant-based milk, raised $1.4bn on its Nasdaq debut last year. Impossible Foods, which makes meatless burgers, raised $500m in November, valuing the firm at $7bn. In February Nestlé, a packaged-goods giant, acquired Orgain, which makes plant-based protein powder, for an undisclosed sum rumoured to be around $2bn. Can the feast last?

热切的投资者已经涌入这一行业，就像燕麦牛奶进入拿铁咖啡。替代蛋白质公司在2021年获得了50亿美元的投资，比2020年多60%。Oatly是一家生产植物奶的瑞典公司，去年在纳斯达克首次亮相时筹集了14亿美元。生产无肉汉堡的Impossible Foods公司在11月筹集了5亿美元，该公司的估值为70亿美元。2月，包装产品巨头雀巢公司收购了生产植物蛋白粉的Orgain公司，据传收购金额不详，约为20亿美元。这场盛宴能持续吗？

One reason to be hopeful is that alternative proteins have come a long way since the 1980s, when Quorn, a fungus-based meat alternative, first hit supermarket shelves. Silk, a soya milk, followed in the 1990s. Unlike those early products, which were neither terribly tasty nor particularly nutritious, the latest crop are often both. Clever processing improves texture, additives boost taste and a pinch of specially engineered peas and beans adds nutrients.

充满希望的一个原因是，自20世纪80年代以来，替代蛋白质已经取得了长足的进步，当时Quorn是一种基于真菌的肉类替代品，首次在超市上架销售。20世纪90年代，豆浆 "丝绸 "也随之出现。与那些早期产品不同的是，这些产品既不美味也没有特别的营养，而最新的产品往往两者都有。巧妙的加工过程改善了质地，添加剂提高了口感，而一撮特别设计的豌豆和豆子则增加了营养。

Firms are experimenting with ever more novel ingredients in search of meat- and dairy-like properties that will attract ever more shoppers. TerViva, an American startup, is using the oil of pongamia, an Asian tree, to mimic butter. ChickP, an Israeli firm, is using chickpea extracts to mimic the texture and nutritional value of eggs in mayonnaise. Firms are also getting better at turning such bounty into consumer products. There are now ways of using corn protein to make plant-based cheese alternatives melt and stretch.

公司正在试验更多的新成分，以寻找类似肉类和乳制品的特性，从而吸引更多的购物者。美国的一家初创公司TerViva正在使用亚洲树种凤仙花的油来模仿黄油。一家以色列公司ChickP正在使用鹰嘴豆提取物来模仿蛋黄酱中鸡蛋的质地和营养价值。公司也越来越善于将这些丰收的东西转化为消费产品。现在有办法使用玉米蛋白来使植物性奶酪替代品融化和伸展。

Better products and lower prices—the result of both improved manufacturing techniques and scale—have coincided with the rise of “flexitarians”, who forgo meat but not always. Some are trying to cut saturated fat for health reasons—a trend fuelled by the pandemic. Fitness fanatics on faddish diets want to develop bulging muscles without building up cholesterol. Concerns about animal welfare and greenhouse-gas emissions from rearing livestock are driving the climate-conscious to limit their animal-derived intake; producing a gram of beef generates 25 times the volume of greenhouse-gas emissions as producing a gram of tofu.

更好的产品和更低的价格--改进制造技术和规模的结果--与 "灵活派 "的兴起相吻合，他们放弃了肉类，但并非总是如此。一些人为了健康而试图减少饱和脂肪--这种趋势被大流行病所助长。追求时尚饮食的健身狂人希望在不增加胆固醇的情况下练出隆起的肌肉。对动物福利和饲养牲畜产生的温室气体排放的关注，促使有气候意识的人限制他们的动物来源的摄入量；生产一克牛肉产生的温室气体排放量是生产一克豆腐的25倍。

For all the advantages, making a plant not taste like a plant takes work, and ultra-processed substitutes seldom match animal proteins in nutritional value. Plant-based junk food is still junk. Soya is a common allergen and can have a disruptive effect on hormones. Green-minded consumers are realising that plant-based does not necessarily mean sustainable. Farming almonds to make a milk-like drink, for example, uses huge quantities of water. As inflation rises, even diehard flexitarians may turn into omnivores, and pick either the real deal (cheaper than faux animal proteins) or veg (cheaper still).

尽管有这么多优点，但要让植物吃起来不像植物需要付出努力，而且超加工的替代品在营养价值上很少能与动物蛋白相比。基于植物的垃圾食品仍然是垃圾。大豆是一种常见的过敏原，对荷尔蒙有破坏性影响。注重环保的消费者意识到，植物性食品不一定意味着可持续发展。例如，养殖杏仁来制作类似牛奶的饮料，需要消耗大量的水。随着通货膨胀的上升，即使是顽固的灵活主义者也可能变成杂食者，并选择真正的交易（比假的动物蛋白更便宜）或素食（更便宜）。

Plant-based proteins are also a tough sell in giant markets like India, where diets are already plant-rich, or Nigeria, where meat-eating is a sign of wealth. That limits their global appeal. And animal products, including milk, are better for children's bone development and nurturing gut bacteria, though lab-grown versions of meat and dairy are becoming more nutritious.

植物蛋白在印度这样的巨型市场也很难销售，因为那里的饮食已经富含植物，或者尼日利亚，那里吃肉是财富的象征。这限制了它们的全球吸引力。包括牛奶在内的动物产品对儿童的骨骼发育和培养肠道细菌更有利，尽管实验室培养的肉类和乳制品正变得更加富有营养。

All this suggests that alternative proteins have far to go to replace the animal kind. The limitations may be weighing on the firms involved. Oatly's market value has fallen by about 80% since its listing, partly because of production difficulties. That of Beyond Meat, whose burgers feature in McDonald's McPlant sandwich, is down by 90% from its peak in 2019. Sales slowed in 2021 and losses widened to $100m in the first quarter of 2022, compared with $27m a year earlier. Plant-based foods may no longer be only an appetiser in diets, but their makers remain one in the food business.

所有这一切都表明，替代性蛋白质要取代动物性蛋白质还有很长的路要走。这些限制可能会对相关公司造成压力。自上市以来，Oatly的市场价值已经下降了约80%，部分原因是生产困难。Beyond Meat公司的汉堡在麦当劳的McPlant三明治中占有一席之地，该公司的市值从2019年的峰值下降了90%。2021年销售放缓，2022年第一季度亏损扩大到1亿美元，而一年前为2700万美元。植物性食品可能不再只是饮食中的开胃菜，但它们的制造商仍然是食品企业中的一员。